open-problem

The honest ledger. What in this family is solved, what is a matter of engineering, and what is genuinely open. Ordered by how much they block progress.

Sources: original to this vault (design and analysis; no single paper).

Theory (CT-ML wiki): Statistical Game

1. Controlling the real locus — open, and blocking

Everything computable in the pipeline — the residual, the eigenproblem (Fitting is a Nullspace Problem), the Jacobian rank, the Bézout count — is a statement about the complex variety. Everything you want — that the relation is a nonempty manifold of the intended dimension, in the data’s own coordinates — is a statement about . By Varieties Ideals and Real Nullstellensatz the two can be arbitrarily far apart: defines a complex curve whose real locus is a point.

Nothing in the fitting procedure prevents this. The fit sees only the data, and is free to return an ideal whose real locus is barely larger than the training set — which is a very precise form of overfitting, invisible to the training objective.

What would fix it: a tractable regulariser that penalises real-codimension exceeding the complex codimension. Positivstellensatz / moment–SOS certificates are the only principled route known, and their moment matrices carry the same cost. I am not aware of any practical method. This is the deepest gap.

2. The wall — open; several attacks, none sufficient

is simultaneously the parameter count, the sample complexity, the eigenproblem size, and the base of every downstream blowup (The Veronese Parametrisation). Attacks that have been tried:

approachwhy it helpswhy it is not enough
sparse supports — restrict to a chosen monomial set becomes the support size; BKK bounds tightenchoosing the support is the model-selection problem in disguise; getting it wrong is unrecoverable
kernelisation — the polynomial kernel computes in fitting depends on data only through , which is Gram-likethe output is , a vector in the -dimensional feature space; you cannot root-find in an implicit feature space, so inference is lost
random projection / sketching of the Veronese spacereduces with JL guarantees on the fitdestroys the algebraic structure: a projected ideal is not an ideal, so elimination, resultants and root counts are all unavailable
low-rank / tensor structure on fewer parameters, respects symmetryrestricts the model class in a way with no approximation theory behind it
toric / hierarchical restrictiongenuinely better behaved everywhere (Algebraic Statistics Bridge)only applies when the structure is known a priori

The kernelisation row is the instructive one: the fitting problem kernelises and the inference problem does not. That asymmetry looks fundamental — inference needs explicit coefficients to run a solver — and it is the single most valuable thing to attack. If someone found a way to do root finding in an implicit feature space, the family would scale.

3. Effective Nash–Tognoli — open

Universal Approximation by Nash-Tognoli: no bound is known on the degree needed to represent or approximate a given compact manifold, in terms of any geometric invariant (reach, curvature, topological complexity, volume). Contrast Jackson’s theorem for Weierstraß, or the width bounds for neural approximation.

Since controls controls everything, there is currently no theory of when this model class is affordable for a given target. Even a crude bound — "" — would convert the family from folklore to engineering.

Also open in the same direction: the Borel–Haefliger obstruction means a relation may not be algebraically representable in the data’s ambient space at all. There is no diagnostic for this, and no theory of how many latent channels would suffice to lift out of it.

4. Model selection is a jump between manifolds — open

Choosing means choosing a Grassmannian . Different choices are different manifolds of different dimension with no smooth path between them (The Parameter is a Grassmannian §“Caveat”). The numerical-rank decision of Fitting is a Nullspace Problem is therefore a discrete jump, controlled by a tolerance with no principled setting, and the output is discontinuous in .

What would fix it: a continuous relaxation — a nuclear-norm or log-det surrogate on the Veronese moment matrix whose solution path in a regularisation parameter is continuous and whose knots recover the discrete choices. Plausible, and I am not aware of it having been done for the vanishing-ideal problem specifically.

5. Approximate vanishing ideals are ill-posed — partly solved

Gröbner bases are discontinuous in their coefficients, so they cannot be applied to fitted floating-point (Composition is Elimination §“Failure 4”). Border bases (Kehrein–Kreuzer, Mourrain) and the AVI family of algorithms (Heldt–Kreuzer–Pokutta–Poulisse; VCA; GPCA) solve the stability problem.

What remains: the tolerance parameter (§4), and the absence of any statistical theory — there is no consistency result of the form “with samples from a distribution supported on and noise , the recovered ideal converges to at rate “. Given how much is known about the corresponding question for PCA and subspace recovery, this looks attackable rather than deep.

6. Composition is not closed — understood, and correctly designed around

The composite of two algebraic relations is only constructible (Chevalley) / semialgebraic (Tarski–Seidenberg), so the category is not closed under composition without taking Zariski closures, which lose information (Composition is Elimination, Algebraic Statistics Bridge).

This is not open — it is a theorem — and the architectural response is correct and already in place: do not compose, schedule messages. The quantitative payoff ( versus ) is the sharpest justification for Mycelium.jl anywhere in the vault. Worth recording as a solved problem so it is not re-litigated.

7. The discriminant — intrinsic, not fixable

Branch collisions make inference discontinuous, gradients unbounded, and the entropy a step function (Branches and the Discriminant). This is a property of relations, not of the algebraic representation: has the same behaviour however you write it. Any implicit learner that permits multi-valued relations inherits it.

The correct engineering response is detection and reporting — is an exact, cheap proximity indicator — rather than a fix. What is open is the right loss behaviour near : damping the adjoint solve is standard practice with no theory.

Related open sub-question: monodromy. Branches cannot in general be labelled consistently along a cycle in the factor graph, so message passing around a loop may return to a different branch than it started on. I am not aware of any treatment of this in the implicit-layer literature, and it is a genuine correctness issue for cyclic graphs — arguably the most concrete new problem this note set surfaces.

8. Geometric-distance fitting — understood, expensive

Exact ML fitting needs the geometric distance, whose evaluation is an EDD-many root find per data point (Algebraic versus Geometric Distance). Sampson + IRLS is the practical answer; it works well empirically and has no convergence proof. Not a research emergency, but the absence of a proof should be stated rather than glossed.

Summary table

#problemstatus
1controlling the real locusopen, blocking
2the wall (esp. kernelising inference)open, blocking
3effective Nash–Tognoli degree boundsopen
4continuous model selection over open, probably tractable
5statistical consistency of approximate vanishing idealsopen, probably tractable
5bnumerical stability of AVIsolved (border bases)
6non-closure under compositiontheorem; designed around
7discriminant discontinuityintrinsic; detect, do not fix
7bmonodromy on graph cyclesopen, and specific to this project
8geometric-distance fittingexpensive; IRLS unproven

The one-line recommendation

Build this family as the reference implementation and test oracle — the case where every abstract slot of the statistical game is computable exactly, so the framework itself can be validated — and not as the production path. For production, its role is niche and genuine: low-dimensional factors with known polynomial structure (kinematics, multi-view geometry, reaction networks) embedded in a graph whose other factors are neural.

Related: Algebraic Implicit Learners, The Algebraic Factor as a Statistical Game, Implicit Learners